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Live data -- Q1 2026

Supply Chain Risk Monitor

Track tariff volatility, shipping disruptions, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical events affecting global manufacturing. 15 active alerts across 8 source countries.

Global Manufacturing Risk Index

64/100

Medium Risk -- Elevated by Section 301 tariffs, Red Sea disruptions, and Taiwan Strait tensions

Tariff Risk

74

Shipping

61

Currency

48

Geopolitical

73

Active Trade Alerts

15 alerts -- Click to expand full impact details

🔴CRITICAL

US Section 301 List 4A tariffs on Chinese goods at 25% — originally 7.5%, raised effective Feb 4, 2025

13 months ago

Affects electronics, machinery, chemicals, and plastics imported from China. Landed costs increased 18-25% for affected HS chapters vs pre-escalation rates.

ChinaElectronicsHome GoodsToysFurniture
🟡WARNING

Red Sea / Houthi attacks ongoing — Maersk, MSC rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days transit

11 days ago

Asia-to-US East Coast ocean freight rates up 35%. Container availability tightening. Suez Canal traffic down ~60% from pre-crisis levels.

ChinaVietnamIndiaBangladeshAll Categories
🟡WARNING

Panama Canal drought restrictions — max 24 daily transits vs normal 36-40

15 days ago

Neopanamax vessel slots limited. Booking windows extended to 3-4 weeks. Auction fees for priority transit reaching $500K-$2M per vessel.

ChinaVietnamSouth KoreaTaiwanAll Categories
🔴CRITICAL

US de minimis ($800) threshold under Congressional review — Section 321 reform could eliminate duty-free e-commerce from China

8 days ago

1.5 billion+ de minimis packages entered the US in 2025. Shein, Temu, and direct-from-China sellers face potential 25-100% cost increases if threshold is lowered or eliminated for China-origin goods.

ChinaElectronicsApparelBeautyToys
🟢OPPORTUNITY

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2 started Jan 2026 — importers must report embedded emissions

2 months ago

EU importers of aluminum, steel, cement, hydrogen, fertilizers, and electricity must now report verified emissions data. Financial adjustment phase begins 2027.

ChinaIndiaVietnamThailandAuto PartsHome GoodsFurniture
🟢OPPORTUNITY

India PLI Phase 2 for IT hardware — 4-6% production incentive on incremental sales for electronics manufacturers

18 days ago

Indian manufacturers receiving government subsidies can offer 4-6% more competitive pricing. Applications open through Q2 2026.

IndiaElectronics
🔴CRITICAL

Bangladesh LDC graduation scheduled Nov 2026 — will lose EU GSP/EBA duty-free access by 2029

in 8 months

Bangladesh's graduation from UN Least Developed Country status triggers 3-year transition. EU Everything But Arms (EBA) duty-free access expires ~2029. Garment export competitiveness at risk.

BangladeshApparelHome Goods
🟢OPPORTUNITY

Mexico nearshoring momentum — IMMEX permits processed in 5 days vs 30, USMCA duty-free access intact

1 month ago

Streamlined customs processing and tax incentives for US-bound manufacturing. Transit times 3-5 days vs 30+ from Asia.

MexicoElectronicsAuto PartsHome GoodsFurniture
🟡WARNING

Mexico cargo theft up 22% in key logistics corridors — Queretaro-Mexico City and Laredo-Monterrey routes most affected

22 days ago

Insurance premiums for Mexico ground freight up 15-20%. Electronics and consumer goods most targeted. Armed escort costs increasing.

MexicoElectronicsAuto PartsHome Goods
🔴CRITICAL

Taiwan Strait naval exercises — shipping insurance premiums up 15% for Taiwan-origin cargo

5 days ago

War risk insurance surcharges applied to Taiwan shipments. Semiconductor and electronics component deliveries delayed 5-8 days.

TaiwanElectronicsAuto Parts
🟢OPPORTUNITY

South Korea semiconductor mega-investment — $471B through 2047 via K-CHIPS Act, rivaling US CHIPS Act

7 weeks ago

Samsung, SK Hynix investing massively in domestic fabs. Tax credits of 15-25% for semiconductor equipment and R&D. KORUS FTA ensures 0% duty on most Korean electronics entering US.

South KoreaElectronicsAuto Parts
🟡WARNING

Container freight rates surging — SCFI Shanghai to LA at $3,200/FEU in Q1 2026 vs $1,400 in early 2024

3 days ago

Trans-Pacific freight costs more than doubled from 2024 lows. Combined Red Sea rerouting and Panama Canal restrictions driving sustained rate increases.

ChinaVietnamIndiaBangladeshThailandAll Categories
🟢OPPORTUNITY

Thailand BOI incentives extended through 2032 — 5-8 year tax holidays for targeted industries including electronics, auto, EV, and medical devices

2 months ago

Thailand Board of Investment offering corporate income tax exemptions of 5-8 years, plus import duty exemptions on machinery and raw materials for qualifying investments.

ThailandElectronicsAuto PartsBeauty
🟡WARNING

Vietnam new labor law amendments effective July 2025 — overtime caps tightened, minimum wage increase schedule set through 2027

9 months ago

Overtime capped at 40 hours/month (was 60 for some sectors). Minimum wage increases of 6-8% annually through 2027. Manufacturing unit costs rising 4-6% per year.

VietnamApparelElectronicsToys
🟢OPPORTUNITY

South Korea KORUS FTA — K-beauty HS 3304 at 0% duty (was 4.5%), plus new cosmetic ingredient certifications streamlined

2 months ago

Korean cosmetics and skincare products enter US duty-free. K-beauty brands can undercut competitors sourcing from China (still at 6.5% duty).

South KoreaBeauty

Risk Timeline

Upcoming trade events and policy deadlines that may impact your supply chain

Apr 2026HIGH

US Section 301 Four-Year Review Hearing

USTR public hearing on continuation/modification of Section 301 tariffs on China. Industry comments period open. Possible tariff adjustments for specific HS codes.

China
Jul 2026HIGH

USMCA Joint Review (Article 34.7)

Mandatory six-year review of US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Topics: Rules of Origin tightening for autos, digital trade provisions, labor/environmental enforcement. Agreement could be extended, modified, or terminated.

MexicoCanada
Nov 2026MEDIUM

Bangladesh LDC Graduation

Official graduation from UN Least Developed Country status. Triggers 3-year transition for EU EBA duty-free preferences. GSP eligibility changes globally.

Bangladesh
Jan 2027HIGH

EU CBAM Full Financial Implementation

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism transitions from reporting to financial phase. Importers must purchase CBAM certificates for embedded emissions in aluminum, steel, cement, hydrogen, and fertilizers.

ChinaIndiaVietnam
Jul 2027MEDIUM

Vietnam Minimum Wage Phase 3

Third scheduled minimum wage increase under Vietnam's 2025-2027 labor cost roadmap. Projected 7-8% increase across all regions. Cumulative ~22% increase from 2025 baseline.

Vietnam
Q3 2027LOW

Panama Canal Expansion Phase 2 Study

Panama Canal Authority to release feasibility study for fourth set of locks and water management system. If approved, would increase daily transits to 50+ by 2032.

Panama
2029HIGH

Bangladesh EU EBA Preference Expiry

End of 3-year transition period. Bangladesh garment exports to EU face standard GSP rates (~9.6% avg for apparel vs 0% under EBA). Major sourcing shift expected.

Bangladesh
Scroll to see all 7 events

Country Risk Heatmap

Sourcing risk by country with 6-month trend -- click any card for sub-score breakdown

🇨🇳China
HIGH
Risk Score
78/100

Section 301 tariffs (25%) + IP risk

Worsening
🇻🇳Vietnam
LOW
Risk Score
35/100

Growing trade agreements, rising labor costs

Stable
🇮🇳India
MEDIUM
Risk Score
52/100

Infrastructure gaps + bureaucracy

Improving
🇲🇽Mexico
MEDIUM-LOW
Risk Score
42/100

USMCA stable but security risk

Stable
🇰🇷S. Korea
LOW
Risk Score
28/100

KORUS FTA + strong IP protection

Stable
🇹🇼Taiwan
MEDIUM-HIGH
Risk Score
61/100

Geopolitical premium + strait risk

Worsening
🇧🇩Bangladesh
MEDIUM
Risk Score
58/100

LDC graduation risk + infrastructure

Worsening
🇹🇭Thailand
LOW
Risk Score
33/100

BOI incentives + Japanese anchor tenants

Improving

Tariff Impact Calculator

Estimate landed cost impact across 8 product categories and 8 source countries

Current Tariff Rate

25%

Extra Cost / $10 Unit

$2.50

Annual Cost (10K units)

$25,000

High tariff exposure. Click "Compare Countries" to find lower-cost alternatives.

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Personalized Analysis

How This Affects Your Product

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